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Greg Sargent2009-02-10
@ThePlumLineGS2,078 days
A blog about politics, politics, and politics
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73,1242,45766,4673,217283
Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
@EJDionne @RonBrownstein Great piece. Ds have released new early voting #s among *non* 2010 voters that get at this washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-lin…
9h in reply to EJDionne               
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Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
@rprez2012 The DMR presents no numbers showing that, so I'm not sure what your basis for concluding that is
10h in reply to rprez2012               
Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
@rprez2012 As I keep trying to explain, the key metric is among the *non* 2010 voters.
11h in reply to rprez2012               
USA TODAY @USATODAY
#BREAKING Officials: Health worker aboard cruise ship does not have Ebola usat.ly/1wd6YRA
14h Retweeted by ThePlumLineGS               
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Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
Despite GOP feeding media chicken stories, Gazette endorses Braley based on positive record on rural issues: thegazette.com/subject/opinio…
13h               
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Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
This great @sherylstolberg story on black vote mobile.nytimes.com/2014/10/19/us/… confirms D hopes turn on *non* 2010 voters: washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-lin…
15h               
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David Beard @dabeard
Public health officials: Travel ban a horrible idea that would make us less safe wapo.st/1nt9hiX @katiezez
1d Retweeted by ThePlumLineGS               
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Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
@GlennThrush Hah, fair enough. Here's some more reporting on cynics washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-lin…
1d in reply to GlennThrush               
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Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
@GlennThrush you are such a hard-boiled cynic :)
1d in reply to GlennThrush               
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Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
Ebola helps Rs nationalize Senate races, shift convo from issues where Ds win, & feed sense USA is off rails: washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-lin…
1d               
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Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
@JustBobbyThings I believe Mellman's polling accurately picked Reid in 2010 and Heitkamp and Tester in 2012
1d in reply to JustBobbyThings               
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Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
Shorter @georgewillf: "Thinking women" should overlook Cory Gardner's actual views & vote for his "cheerfulness" washingtonpost.com/opinions/georg…
1d               
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Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
A new D poll by @MarkMellman has Udall up 44-41 in #cosen, @POLITICOPro reports. Average has Gardner up 2.2 elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2014-…
1d               
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Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
Now that many Ds are caving on travel ban, reposting my take on why Ebola is political prob for Ds: washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-lin…
1d               
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Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
An alarming trend for Senate Ds, captured in a very good piece by @MysteryPollster and @aedwardslevy: huffingtonpost.com/2014/10/17/sen…
1d               
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Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
Happy Hour! washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-lin… with @CitizenCohn @SabrinaSiddiqui @stevebenen @brianbeutler @EliStokols @samsteinhp @paulwaldman1
2d               
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Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
@thomasa56 Actually, sonny boy, the piece quotes a *Republican* complaining about the ad.
2d in reply to thomasa56               
Jamil Smith @JamilSmith
The "Willie Horton ad," as a GOP tactic, isn't back. It never really left. @ThePlumLineGS on the latest iteration: wapo.st/1Dj8MMb
2d Retweeted by ThePlumLineGS               
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Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
RT @ryanlcooper: Ohh give me that ollld time race-baitin washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-lin…
2d               
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Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
MT @samsteinhp I’ve asked @Team_Mitch camp 7 times this week if he supports ending fed subsidies for KY’s coverage expansion. no response.
2d               
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Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
Other day I asked whether Ds would remain level headed on Ebola washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-lin… Answer appears to be No huffingtonpost.com/2014/10/17/kay…
2d               
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Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
GOP strategist with some smart thoughts on new GOP Willie Horton ad RT @TheRickWilson: The story in question. washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-lin…
2d               
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Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
Don't miss Michael Bennet's campaign manager on what a good ground game can accomplish in #cosen: kdvr.com/2014/10/16/uda…
2d               
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Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
@baseballcrank @ESQPolitics why -- redundant?
2d in reply to baseballcrank               
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Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
Via @ESQPolitics, Joni Ernst "really let her freak-flag fly in a Romneyesque way" esquire.com/blogs/politics…
2d               
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Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
Rs are cringing at the new racially charged Willie Horton spot. Takes GOP in exactly wrong direction: washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-lin…
2d               
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Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
GOP strategist rips new GOP version of Willie Horton ad: "Any idiot can use too much hot sauce": washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-lin…
2d               
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Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
@jeffreypavlak a lot of other writers who have weighed in on it disagree
2d in reply to jeffreypavlak               
Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
@ZaidJilani media no longer raises eyebrow at even the craziest GOP statements
2d in reply to ZaidJilani               
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Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
@ZaidJilani well, it has been remarked on by a whole lot of people
2d in reply to ZaidJilani               
Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
@ZaidJilani no, not really. she says an entire generation of americans relies on govt for absolutely everything
2d in reply to ZaidJilani               
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Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
Read @eliasisquith on whacky Joni Ernst statement about government that continues to go ignored by most media: salon.com/2014/10/17/iow…
2d               
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Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
@BLPrime For example, today a PPP poll, which is also partisan, came out showing Braley up. That on its own tells us nothing.
2d in reply to BLPrime               
Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
@BLPrime The bottom line is that cherry picking only the polls you like may make you feel good, but it doesn't tell you anything
2d in reply to BLPrime               
Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
@BLPrime @BuzzFeedAndrew It depends. Some folks only tweet some polls that they like; not ones they don't. I try to tweet them all.
2d in reply to BLPrime               
Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
@BLPrime Averages are imperfect, but they are their best hope. Cherry picked individual polls tell us little.
2d in reply to BLPrime               
Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
@BuzzFeedAndrew FWIW, when I tweet out polls I try hard to include the averages wherever possible
2d in reply to BuzzFeedAndrew               
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Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
@BuzzFeedAndrew I have never thought, and do not think, Grimes is going to win. But I would not treat an individual partisan poll that way.
2d in reply to BuzzFeedAndrew               
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Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
@cmpnwtr @BuzzFeedAndrew There is no way I would treat individual polls that way, yet Andrew accuses me of carrying water for Dems.
2d in reply to cmpnwtr               
Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
RT @BuzzFeedAndrew: Kentucky Senate: McConnell (R) 52%, Grimes (D) 44% rasmussenreports.com/public_content… looks like the fat lady is starting to sing.
2d               
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Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
Via @ed_kilgore, here's the crucial distinction to keep in mind when evaluating early voting: washingtonmonthly.com/political-anim…
2d               
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Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
Anyone got contact info form Rick Scott's comms guy @alaskan
2d               
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Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
RT @Nate_Cohn: I'm skeptical that Ebola makes much of a difference pic.twitter.com/nJnNyECwOv
2d               
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Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
Very much so. RT @brianbeutler: Record-breaking derp day.
2d               
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Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
@CabPolitical @AFineBlogger yeah. Braley may be a point or two down, but probably moving (very slowly) in his direction
2d in reply to CabPolitical               
Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
@markjstephenson I assume this one will be thrown into all the averages, as the publicly released GOP ones are
2d in reply to markjstephenson               
Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
@Neoavatara well, there's an argument for putting them into the averages
2d in reply to Neoavatara               
Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
@markjstephenson As you should know by now if you follow my stuff, I advocate looking at the averages
2d in reply to markjstephenson               
Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
Why do GOP internal polls and GOP funded polls generate less snark than Dem ones do?
2d               
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Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
@derekwillis All the polls go right into the averages, including GOP internals and GOP funded ones
2d in reply to derekwillis               
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Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
@EricKleefeld @ForecasterEnten right, true. they're consistent
2d in reply to EricKleefeld               
Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
@ForecasterEnten @EricKleefeld It looks like you guys are in agreement with HuffPollster and Uphshot in putting it at 2 or less
2d in reply to ForecasterEnten               
Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
@ForecasterEnten @EricKleefeld Some new early voting numbers from the DSCC, by the way: washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-lin…
2d in reply to ForecasterEnten               
Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
New from @ppppolls: Braley 48, Ernst 47: lcv.org/assets/pdf/iow… Average has Ernst up 2: elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2014-…
2d               
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Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
@ForecasterEnten @EricKleefeld my guess is Braley is 1 or 2 points behind
2d in reply to ForecasterEnten               
Billmon @billmon1
@ThePlumLineGS Unfortunately, that 22% includes the entire @CNN programming division.
2d in reply to ThePlumLineGSRetweeted by ThePlumLineGS               
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Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
Poll: 73% say they expect Ebola to be contained; only 22% expect major outbreak: washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-lin…
2d               
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Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
Crucial point from @paulwaldman1: Polls show public confident in govt's ability to handle Ebola: washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-lin…
2d               
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Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
Starts with this: washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-lin… RT @CapehartJ: Obama coalition must prove everyone wrong on Nov. 4 wapo.st/1DfyP6S
2d               
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Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
RT @rickklein: I'm old enough to remember when Republicans demanded the president stop appointing czars for stuff.
2d               
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Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
@guypbenson well, okay, I'm not at all surprised that *he* remembered it, or that he tried to hype it
2d in reply to guypbenson               
Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
@guypbenson I have to say, I'm impressed that you even remembered that tweet
2d in reply to guypbenson               
Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
@middlerelievers @ElectProject @LPolchlopek the important number is who is leading among people who did not vote in 2010.
2d in reply to middlerelievers               
Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
@guypbenson Perhaps, but I'm not sure what that one tweet shows or why it's worth highlighting, except as troll bait.
2d in reply to guypbenson               
Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
@BuzzFeedAndrew Andrew, have you seen this Ernst quote on government yet? washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-lin…
2d in reply to BuzzFeedAndrew               
Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
@Paul_Lindsay @ellencarmichael @denverpost Okay, I will keep that in mind as more endorsements for GOP candidates come in. :)
2d in reply to Paul_Lindsay               
Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
@ElectProject @LPolchlopek because people who might not have been picked up as LV voters before now would be
2d in reply to ElectProject               
Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
@Paul_Lindsay @ellencarmichael @denverpost please tell me you mean that as a joke
2d in reply to Paul_Lindsay               
Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
@ellencarmichael that's a pretty rough editorial for Cassidy. gives him one dismissive line.
2d in reply to ellencarmichael               
Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
@ellencarmichael link?
2d in reply to ellencarmichael               
Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
@rprez2012 @conncarroll That's fine. The numbers I include show what both sides are doing among the non-2010 voters.
2d in reply to rprez2012               
Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
@SalenaZitoTrib Now you're playing along with this childishness? That's sad.
2d in reply to SalenaZitoTrib               
Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
@conncarroll @rprez2012 It's my believe that Dems cannot win based only on early vote spread. MUST bring in more NON 2010 voters.
2d in reply to conncarroll               
Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
@conncarroll @rprez2012 It is not really relevant to the core question of whether Ds are succeeding at *expanding* the electorate.
2d in reply to conncarroll               
Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
@rprez2012 @conncarroll I'm less interested in the raw spread. More interested in who is leading among non-2010 voters.
2d in reply to rprez2012               
Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
@rprez2012 @conncarroll Yes, but not relevant to the point *I* was making.
2d in reply to rprez2012               
Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
@rprez2012 @conncarroll Even if that is true, it is not the most important metric, and it is not relevant to the point I was making.
2d in reply to rprez2012               
Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
@KatMcKinley @conncarroll Okay. No point in engaging with you anymore then. Have a nice day
2d in reply to KatMcKinley               
Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
@rprez2012 @conncarroll I don't know. His numbers are not conclusive on that point. I was reporting on DS numbers; and I included skepticism
2d in reply to rprez2012               
Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
@madlaw1071 @guypbenson I just think making an issue out of that tweet is silly and childish
2d in reply to madlaw1071               
Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
@KatMcKinley @conncarroll Thank you for confirming my point. You didn't even look at the facts; just assumed he was right.
2d in reply to KatMcKinley               
Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
@KatMcKinley @conncarroll Conn's point is relevant, but not relevant to the point I was making.
2d in reply to KatMcKinley               
Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
@KatMcKinley @conncarroll The problem is that you conclude the guy on your side is right without a serious look at the actual argument
2d in reply to KatMcKinley               
Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
@rprez2012 @conncarroll Conn, it is absolutely relevant that Rs have closed the gap, but it is not relevant to the point *I* was making.
2d in reply to rprez2012               
Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
@guypbenson Making a "thing" out of this, of all things, is just silly. Come on.
2d in reply to guypbenson               
Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
@rprez2012 @conncarroll that's not what his numbers show, Could it prove to be true later? Maybe. If so, it would be noteworthy then.
2d in reply to rprez2012               
Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
@rprez2012 @conncarroll Right. Core question is, which candidate is currently getting more votes from people who didn't vote in 2010?
2d in reply to rprez2012               
Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
@conncarroll That is not my assumption at all. As I said clearly, IF Dems are right, we will see that in the polls later.
2d in reply to conncarroll               
Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
@rprez2012 @conncarroll Do you understand that he is talking about a different metric?
2d in reply to rprez2012               
Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
@rprez2012 @conncarroll That stat is relevant, but not to the question of who is leading among NON 2010 voters.
2d in reply to rprez2012               
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Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
@rprez2012 @conncarroll Once again, who is *leading* among people who *did not vote* in 2010?
2d in reply to rprez2012               
Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
@guypbenson Well, if it is a commentary on him, that's also silly, but you seem to have activated a lot of trolls with this, so congrats
2d in reply to guypbenson               
Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
@conncarroll If Rs take the *lead* among non-2010 voters, that would absolutely be noteworthy.
2d in reply to conncarroll               
Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
@conncarroll The question, again, is, who is *leading* among non-2010 voters?
2d in reply to conncarroll               
Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
@guypbenson The NRSC regularly tweets out your stuff with much love and affection. Does that mean something?
2d in reply to guypbenson               
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Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
@conncarroll No, that's not the point. The only way the gap is erased is if Rs *also* bring in *non* 2010 voters.
2d in reply to conncarroll               
Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
@conncarroll The Dem advantage by itself is not the key metric. The only way Ds close the gap is by bringing in more non-2010 voters.
2d in reply to conncarroll               
Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
@KatMcKinley @conncarroll Kat, are you calling me a liar?
2d in reply to KatMcKinley               
Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
@conncarroll Also, the first blockquote has the raw D versus R spread in early votes cast.
2d in reply to conncarroll               
Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS
@conncarroll Try reading it again, Conn. Read McDonald's quote in particular.
2d in reply to conncarroll               
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